Another TWO Lib Dem by-election gains from Conservatives

After a Lib Dem gain from the Conservatives in an unusual Wednesday by-election, Thursday brought the Chester Parliamentary by-election along with Lib Dem candidates in four out of the five principal authority council by-elections.

And a familiar type of result came with the first by-election to complete its count:

Congratulations to new councillor, David Busby:

The Conservative campaign in this by-election hit some serious trouble, as Andrew Teale covered:

Defending for the Conservatives is Ian Mitchell, a former small business owner whose family have lived in the area for over 200 years. Mitchell previously contested this ward in 2015 as a UKIP candidate. Unfortunately, his campaign has spun off the track at the final corner: on the Tuesday before polling the Conservatives stopped their campaign and suspended Mitchell from the party over a series of dubious posts on his social media. This move came far too late to remove Ian Mitchell’s name from the ballot paper, where he remains listed as an official Conservative candidate.

Elsewhere:

Thank you to Nick McGeorge for being the Liberal Democrat candidate.

In the Parliamentary by-election, good to see the Lib Dem vote increase; congratulations Rob Herd.

Note too how poorly Reform did – especially bearing in mind that the Brexit Party got 2.5% here in 2019 – despite some of the media commentator-land hype of the party in recent weeks.

Thank you to Peter Clarke for being the Lib Dem candidate.

And to round things off… another gain for the Liberal Democrats:

Congratulations to David Sayers for winning a ward the Lib Dems had previously always finished third or worse in. It follows up a similar win from third place in Gaywood South ward in July last year.

For what all this means for the running total of council by-election results since the last May elections, see my council by-elections scorecard here.

These by-election results round-ups cover principal authority by-elections as it’s only those for which comprehensive results are available.

Understanding the opinion polls

For understanding what is happening in politics, by-elections have the advantage of being real votes in real ballot boxes. But the opinion polls have the advantage of trying to be a representative sample of voters, not just those in the places that happen to have by-elections. To understand the polls properly – and what they do and don’t really tell us – see my book, Polling UnPacked: The History, Uses and Abuses of Political Opinion Polls.

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