Added to the ICM website recently has been an opinion poll carried out in Kensington and Chelsea for the council elections coming up next May.
The ‘headline’ voting intentions (excluding don’t knows and weighted for turnout) are Conservative 41% (-11% on the last local elections in 2014), Labour 41% (+14%), Liberal Democrat 13% (+1%), Green 4% (+1%).
That parenthesis should give a little pause for caution over these dramatic figures, which suggest the Conservatives are on the verge of losing control of the council. Estimating turnout at elections is hard enough for general elections. It’s even harder for local elections as polling for council contests is very rare in Britain, and so pollsters have little chance to hone their methodology.
Why then, you might wonder, has this particular poll been commissioned? The ICM website does not state the client. There is, however, this clue in the questions: “If a completely new political party was formed… what issues would you most like to see it address?” New party? Ah yes.
Full data tables here.
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