Time to stick my neck out and trust to my sources… There’s a new Ashcroft Eastleigh Parliamentary by-election poll out at midnight. Looks like it will be Lib Dem 33%, Conservative 28%, UKIP 21% and Labour 12%.

That’s almost dead on the same as the last Populus poll and a shift to the Liberal Democrats from the last Ashcroft poll. Most significantly, the fieldwork was done on Friday, Saturday and Sunday – right at the height of the negative coverage for the Liberal Democrats over the Chris Rennard allegations.