Here are the latest general election voting intention figures from each of the main pollsters currently polling in the UK. As you can see, from a situation earlier in the year where it was a case of ‘YouGov puts the Conservatives ahead, but that’s not the picture from other pollsters’, it is now a case of many pollsters putting the Conservatives ahead.
|Polling company||Con||Lab||LibDem||Ukip||Green||Con lead||Fieldwork||Method|
|Number Cruncher Politics||41%||39%||8%||4%||2%||2%||10-17/1||Online|
|YouGov (MRP large sample)||39%||34%||11%||5%||4%||5%||2-7/2||Online|
Pollsters whose last national voting intention figures are more than two month olds are excluded from the table but will be added back in if and when a new poll from them appears.
When looking through the polling figures, remember the warning about individual polls. To put the voting intention numbers into longer context, take a look at PollBase, my database of general election voting intention figures from opinion polls going back to 1945. It is updated quarterly.
These polls are for Great Britain, i.e. excluding Northern Ireland but including both Scotland and Wales, except for Survation, who include Northern Ireland. General election voting intention polls conducted over a smaller area, such as London only, are excluded.
Separate figures are not given for the SNP and Plaid because the relative size of Scotland and Wales means that the percentage vote share for each of the across Great Britain is too low for variations to mean much. (For example, at the 2017 general election, the SNP scored 3% of the total vote across Great Britain. A fall to 2% would be a move that is well within the margin of errors on polls yet also, if accurate, would be a massive hammering in the constituencies it contests.)
A rough idea of the likely margin of error in any one opinion poll is to think that it’s pretty likely to be within 3 percentage points of the correct result. Anthony Wells explains here in more detail what this margin of error calculation means, and why it does not strictly apply to modern polls.
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