In addition to its regular series of voting intention polls, ICM also runs a series of ‘wisdom of crowds’ questions, asking people not how they will vote but rather to predict the outcome of the next elections.
Here are the figures from the August poll:
At the last General Election in May 2010, the Conservatives won 37% share of the vote, Labour won 30% share, the Liberal Democrats 24% share and smaller parties had 10% share of the vote. Knowing this, please tell me what percentage share of the vote you think the … would win if there were a General Election tomorrow?
Labour 32% (-2% on June)
Conservative 31% (+2)
Lib Dem 16% (+1)
UKIP 12% (-1)
Fieldwork: online, 9-11 August 2013