Political

Voting intention opinion polls scorecard: Conservatives drop, highest YouGov Lib Dem share this Parliament

Here are the latest general election voting intention figures from each of the main pollsters currently polling in the UK, now including ones featuring The Independent Group (TIG).

Where pollsters both ask a voting intention question with TIG and one without, both of those results feature below.

The last three polls all show a slipping back in the Conservative position. The latest poll, from ComRes, also shows TIG slipping back behind the Lib Dems.

Pollster Con Lab LibDem Ukip Green TIG Con lead Fieldwork Method
BMG 39% 34% 12% 5% 4% 5% 4-8/3 Online
ComRes 38% 37% 10% 6% 3% 1% 16-17/1 Online
ComRes 34% 35% 8% 6% 3% 7% -1% 15-17/3 Online
Delta Poll 39% 31% 5% 4% 11% 8% 21-23/2 Online
ICM 39% 40% 9% 5% 3% -1% 16-18/1 Online
Ipsos-MORI 38% 34% 8% 7% 4% 4% 15-19/3 Phone
Kantar TNS 41% 31% 8% 6% 6% 10% 7-11/3 Online
Opinium 40% 34% 9% 7% 3% 6% 26-1/3 Online
Opinium 37% 33% 7% 7% 4% 5% 4% 26-1/3 Online
Sky 32% 26% 9% 6% 4% 10% 6% 19/2 Online
Survation 35% 39% 10% -4% 15/3 Online
YouGov 35% 31% 12% 6% 4% 4% 14-15/3 Online
YouGov 36% 23% 6% 18% 13% 22-23/2 Online
YouGov (MRP) 39% 34% 11% 5% 4% 5% 2-7/2 Online

Pollsters whose last national voting intention figures are now significantly old are excluded from the table but will be added back in if and when a new poll from them appears.

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the longer-term trends?

When looking through the polling figures, remember the much ignored but still very relevant warning about individual polls.

To put the voting intention numbers above into longer context, take a look at PollBase, my database of general election voting intention figures from opinion polls going back to 1945. It is updated quarterly.

What about Northern Ireland?

These polls are for Great Britain, i.e. excluding Northern Ireland but including both Scotland and Wales, except for Survation, who include Northern Ireland. General election voting intention polls conducted over a smaller area, such as London only, are excluded.

What about the SNP and Plaid?

Separate figures are not given for the SNP and Plaid because the relative size of Scotland and Wales means that the percentage vote share for each of the across Great Britain is too low for variations to mean much. (For example, at the 2017 general election, the SNP scored 3% of the total vote across Great Britain. A fall to 2% would be a move that is well within the margin of errors on polls yet also, if accurate, would be a massive hammering in the constituencies it contests.)

Margins of error

A rough idea of the likely margin of error in any one opinion poll is to think that it’s pretty likely to be within 3 percentage points of the correct result. Anthony Wells explains here in more detail what this margin of error calculation means, and why it does not strictly apply to modern polls.

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