Political

Voting intention opinion polls scorecard: Brexit Party no longer in first

Hello! I’m Mark Pack, author of 101 Ways To Win An Election, and the maintainer of the largest database of national voting intention polls in the UK, stretching back to 1943.

Welcome to a round-up of the latest voting intention figures from each of the polling firms who have conducted at least one poll since the European elections.

Although there’s some significant variation between the pollsters, the overall picture is consistent. Both Labour and Conservatives are stuck in the twenties, the Lib Dems are in mid teens to the low twenties, the Greens are creeping up though not (yet?) clearly in double figures, and Ukip and Change UK are bouncing along around zero.

The one party where big variations come in that make the overall picture look very different from pollster to pollster is the Brexit Party, from fourth and low double figures with Ipsos-MORI through to the mid-twenties elsewhere. Overall, though, the Brexit Party is no longer in first place.

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General election voting intention polls

Pollster Con Lab LD Ukip Green CUK BXP Con/Lab Fieldwork
ComRes 24%
(-1)
28%
(nc)
15%
(-1)
5%
(nc)
20%
(+1)
-4% 10-11/7
Survation 23%
(-1)
29%
(+3)
19%
(+1)
3%
(-3)
20%
(nc)
-6% 10-11/7
YouGov 24%
(nc)
20%
(+2)
19%
(-1)
0%
(nc)
9%
(nc)
0%
(nc)
21%
(-2)
+ 9-10/7
Opinium 23%
(+3)
25%
(-1)
15%
(-1)
1%
(-1)
8%
(+2)
1%
(nc)
22%
(-1)
-2% 3-5/7
BMG 28%
(+2)
27%
(nc)
18%
(+1)
2%
(+1)
6%
(nc)
1%
(nc)
14%
(-4)
1% 2-5/7
Ipsos-MORI 26%
(+1)
24%
(-3)
22%
(+7)
1%
(-2)
8%
(+1)
0%
(-2)
12%
(-4)
2% 21-25/5
Delta Poll 20%
(-12)
26%
(-9)
16%
(+9)
1%
(-5)
5%
(+3)
4%
(-5)
24%
(+18)
+ 29-30/5

– indicates that party didn’t feature in the polling questions separate from ‘Others’ or that the data is not yet available.
+ indicates that Conservative and Labour are not the top two parties in the poll.
Pollsters whose last national voting intention figures are now significantly old are excluded from the table but will be added back in if and when a new poll from them appears.

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the longer-term trends?

When looking through the polling figures, remember the much ignored but still very relevant warning about individual polls.

To put the voting intention numbers above into longer context, take a look at PollBase, my database of general election voting intention figures from opinion polls going back to 1945. It is updated quarterly.

What about Northern Ireland?

These polls are for Great Britain, i.e. excluding Northern Ireland but including both Scotland and Wales, except for Survation, who include Northern Ireland. General election voting intention polls conducted over a smaller area, such as London only, are excluded.

What about the SNP and Plaid?

Separate figures are not given for the SNP and Plaid because the relative size of Scotland and Wales means that the percentage vote share for each of the across Great Britain is too low for variations to mean much. (For example, at the 2017 general election, the SNP scored 3% of the total vote across Great Britain. A fall to 2% would be a move that is well within the margin of errors on polls yet also, if accurate, would be a massive hammering in the constituencies it contests.)

Margins of error

A rough idea of the likely margin of error in any one opinion poll is to think that it’s pretty likely to be within 3 percentage points of the correct result. Anthony Wells explains here in more detail what this margin of error calculation means, and why it does not strictly apply to modern polls.

How come I don’t know anyone who has been polled?

You do now.

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