Political

Voting intention opinion polls scorecard: the final Euro polls

Hello! I’m Mark Pack, author of 101 Ways To Win An Election, and the maintainer of the largest database of national voting intention polls in the UK, stretching back to 1943.

Welcome to a round-up of the latest voting intention figures from each of the polling firms who are currently active in Britain.

The final rounds of European Parliament election polls for Great Britain all have the Brexit Party ahead (on 27-38%), then have it tight between Labour (13-25%) and the Lib Dems (12-20%), with the Conservatives (7-15%) consistently behind the Lib Dems and so mixing it with the Greens (4-12%) for fourth place. Change UK is further back (3-6%), as is Ukip (2-3%).

(Scroll down to the end of this post if you’d like to receive news of new polls by email.)

European Parliament voting intention polls

Survation (22 May):

Ipsos-MORI (20-22 May):

BMG (20-22 May):

YouGov (19-21 May):

Number Cruncher Politics (18-21 May):

Opinium (17-20 May):

Kanter (14-21 May):

Panelbase (14-21 May):

ComRes (13-17 May):

Hanbury Strategy (10-13 May):

General election voting intention polls

Pollster Con Lab LD Ukip Green CUK BXP Con/Lab Fieldwork
Survation 28%
(+!)
33%
(+1)
13%
(nc)
3%
(+1)
3%
(-)
2%
(-)
12%
(-1)
-5% 22/5
Number Cruncher Politics 27% 31% 15% 14% -4% 18-21/5
PanelBase 21%
(-6)
31%
(-5)
13%
(+5)
3%
(-2)
5%
(+2)
4%
(nc)
19%
(+6)
-10% 14-21/5
Opinium 22%
(nc)
29%
(+1)
11%
(nc)
2%
(-2)
3%
(-3)
3%
(-1)
24%
(+3)
-7% 14-16/5
YouGov 25%
(+1)
25%
(+1)
16%
(nc)
2%
(nc)
7%
(nc)
2%
(nc)
18%
(nc)
0% 13-14/5
Ipsos-MORI 25%
(-13)
27%
(-7)
15%
(+7)
3%
(-4)
7%
(+3)
2%
(nc)
16%
(+15)
-2% 10-14/5
ComRes 20%
(+1)
27%
(nc)
13%
(-1)
4%
(+1)
4%
(-1)
6%
(-1)
20%
(nc)
-7%+ 10-12/5
Hanbury 21%
(-10)
30%
(-10)
13%
(+5)
2%
(-6)
5%
(nc)
6%
(new)
19%
(new)
-9% 9-13/5
Kantar TNS 25%
(-7)
34%
(-1)
15%
(+4)
4%
(-3)
3%
(-1)
1%
(new)
10%
(new)
-9% 9-13/5
BMG 27%
(-2)
30%
(-1)
18%
(+10)
3%
(-4)
6%
(+2)
3%
(-5)
10%
(+4)
-3% 7-10/5
OnePoll 24% 32% 9% 5% 5% 5% 14% -8% 17/4
ORB 27% 30% 8% 5% 4% 6%
14% -3% 16-17/4

– indicates that party didn’t feature in the polling questions separate from ‘Others’.
+ indicates that Conservative and Labour are not the top two parties in the poll.
Pollsters whose last national voting intention figures are now significantly old are excluded from the table but will be added back in if and when a new poll from them appears.

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the longer-term trends?

When looking through the polling figures, remember the much ignored but still very relevant warning about individual polls.

To put the voting intention numbers above into longer context, take a look at PollBase, my database of general election voting intention figures from opinion polls going back to 1945. It is updated quarterly.

What about Northern Ireland?

These polls are for Great Britain, i.e. excluding Northern Ireland but including both Scotland and Wales, except for Survation, who include Northern Ireland. General election voting intention polls conducted over a smaller area, such as London only, are excluded.

What about the SNP and Plaid?

Separate figures are not given for the SNP and Plaid because the relative size of Scotland and Wales means that the percentage vote share for each of the across Great Britain is too low for variations to mean much. (For example, at the 2017 general election, the SNP scored 3% of the total vote across Great Britain. A fall to 2% would be a move that is well within the margin of errors on polls yet also, if accurate, would be a massive hammering in the constituencies it contests.)

Margins of error

A rough idea of the likely margin of error in any one opinion poll is to think that it’s pretty likely to be within 3 percentage points of the correct result. Anthony Wells explains here in more detail what this margin of error calculation means, and why it does not strictly apply to modern polls.

How come I don’t know anyone who has been polled?

You do now.

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