Political

Latest general election voting intention opinion polls

Hello! I’m Mark Pack, author of Polling UnPacked: The History, Uses and Abuses of Political Opinion Polls, as well as 101 Ways To Win An Election and Bad News: what the headlines don’t tell us.

Welcome to my summary of the latest national voting intention poll from each pollster currently operating in Britain.

Below the table, you’ll find the option to sign up to email updates about new polls and also a set of answers to frequently asked questions about political polling.

Or, if you’d like to find out more about how polls work, how reliable they are and how to make sense of them, check out my book, Polling UnPacked: the History, Uses and Abuses of Political Opinion Polls.

General election voting intention polls

PollsterConLabLDGrnRUKCon leadFieldwork
Redfield &
Wilton
33%
(-2)
39%
(nc)
12%
(nc)
4%
(-2)
5%
(+2)
-6%18/5
Ipsos MORI33%
(-2)
39%
(-1)
12%
(+2)
5%
(-2)
-6%11-17/5
Opinium34%
(nc)
37%
(+1)
12%
(+2)
7%
(-1)
-3%11-13/5
Techne34%
(nc)
39%
(-1)
11%
(+1)
6%
(+1)
-5%11-12/5
YouGov33%
(-2)
38%
(+2)
12%
(+2)
6%
(-2)
3%
(-1)
-5%10-11/5
Savanta ComRes34%
(-1)
39%
(-2)
11%
(+2)
3%
(-1)
3%
(nc)
-5%6-8/5
Survation33%
(-2)
42%
(nc)
9%
(nc)
4%
(+1)
2%
(nc)
-9%22-26/44
Deltapoll32%
(-2)
43%
(+3)
9%
(-1)
6%
(+1)
2%
(nc)
-11%13-14/4
Kantar34%
(-2)
37%
(-1)
11%
(-1)
7%
(+1)
4%
(+1)
-3%7-11/4
2019 result45%33%12%3%2%
(Brexit)
12%
2017 result43%41%8%2%2%
(Ukip)
2%
2015 result38%31%8%4%13%
(Ukip)
7%

– indicates that party didn’t feature in the polling questions separate from ‘Others’ or that the data is not yet available.
RUK = Brexit Party or Reform Party.
Numbers in brackets show change since the previous comparable poll (i.e. by the same pollster with the same methodology). Note that natural random variation between samples means a change of a couple of points may well be just statistical noise rather than a real change in support. Very occasionally, a large change will also be noise rather than real change.
nc = no change from previous comparable poll. na = not applicable, i.e. there isn’t a previous comparable poll.

For all the voting intention polls and not just the latest ones, see PollBase, the largest collection of UK voting intention polls, which is updated quarterly.

Understanding different polling firms

You may find these posts useful:

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Frequently Asked Questions

Why isn’t polling company X in the table?

The table above includes the latest UK or British voting intention poll from each of the currently active reputable pollsters.

If a company isn’t listed this is because it has not carried out a recent poll, it isn’t reputable or I’ve made an error. Please get in touch if you suspect it’s the latter. ‘Reputable’ usually means being a member of the polling industry regulatory body, the British Polling Council (BPC). I occasionally make exceptions, such as for a new polling firm with a good pedigree which hasn’t yet had its BPC membership approved.

How can a poll of just 1,000 people tell us the views of millions of people?

It can appear baffling that a poll of only 1,000 people is meant to be enough to reveal the mood of a nation of tens of millions of people. But 1,000 or so is indeed enough, as I explain here.

Margins of error

A rough idea of the likely margin of error in any one opinion poll is to think that it’s pretty likely to be within 3 percentage points of the correct result. Anthony Wells explains here in more detail what this margin of error calculation means, and why it does not strictly apply to modern polls. Based on the historic record of polls, the British Polling Council requires its members to use this explanation of the margin of error:

All polls are subject to a wide range of potential sources of error. On the basis of the historical record of the polls at recent general elections, there is a 9 in 10 chance that the true value of a party’s support lies within 4 points of the estimates provided by this poll, and a 2 in 3 chance that they lie within 2 points.

When looking through the polling figures, remember the much ignored but still very relevant warning about individual polls.

To put the voting intention numbers above into longer context, take a look at PollBase, my database of general election voting intention figures from opinion polls going back to 1945. It is updated quarterly.

What about the SNP and Plaid?

Separate figures are not given for the SNP and Plaid because the relative size of Scotland and Wales means that the percentage vote share for each of the across Great Britain is too low for variations to mean much. (For example, at the 2017 general election, the SNP scored 3% of the total vote across Great Britain. A fall to 2% would be a move that is well within the margin of errors on polls yet also, if accurate, would be a massive hammering in the constituencies it contests.)

What about Northern Ireland?

These polls are for Great Britain, i.e. excluding Northern Ireland but including both Scotland and Wales, except for Survation, who include Northern Ireland. General election voting intention polls conducted over a smaller area, such as London only, are excluded.

Has the choice of parties biased the poll?

A plausible-sounding critique of voting intention opinion polls is over the choice of parties to ask about. These polls list some parties up front and then give an ‘other’ option, behind which sits other, much smaller parties. Labour, for example, will be in the first category but the Women’s Equality Party in the second. Which often leads people to complain that a poll is biased against party X because it is listed in the other section rather than in the main party listing. That sounds plausible, but the evidence is that this doesn’t unfairly depress the support for other parties.

Aren’t polls just wildly inaccurate these days?

Not so: the evidence is that they are still pretty good – and haven’t got worse. Here’s the data that does that myth-busting.

Are the opinion pollsters regulated?

Yes, by the Market Research Society and also by the British Polling Council, which all the reputable political polling firms are members of. The BPC’s rules include requiring pollsters to publish in full the exact questions asked for their polls, protecting against leading questions being secretly asked.

How come I don’t know anyone who has been polled?

You do now.

And for an explanation of why it’s common for people not to have been polled, see this.

How can I find out more about understanding polls?

There’s a chapter on the subject in my book, Bad News, or for a whole book about polls, see Polling UnPacked.

8 responses to “Latest general election voting intention opinion polls”

  1. The study of past General Elections lead me to conclude that if Labour do well then so do the Liberal Democrats. The reverse seems to be the case if the Conservatives are winning.

  2. Dear Mark Pack,
    Hard working psephologists deserve to make a living but do the general election polls deserve the publicity that they are getting individually? For several months the polls have shown Labour round 40%, LibDems round 10% and Tories round 34%. An even more stable percentage is Labour and LibDems together at 50%. To my knowledge, little is made of this remarkable stability. Headlines are given to tiny fluctuations well within the margin of error. The local election results will anyway depend hugely on tactical voting not much reflected in the national polls. In situations where LibDems or Labour are strong, they will attract many votes from the other party. There is no formal pact but voters and candidates will use their common sense. In constituencies where Labour are weak compared to the LibDems, they will distribute a token leaflet to the LibDems ten and have doorstep chats about the weather. Vice/versa will apply. In any case only the NI vote will really matter. It will be a huge step towards the reunification of Ireland. Few in England will care and the Scots will congratulate the six counties as their political allies.
    Thanks for all the interesting things on your site and best wishes,

    Peter Huggins

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