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Political

Voting intention opinion polls scorecard: Brexit vote edition

With the crunch Brexit vote coming up in Parliament and talk of votes of no confidence, here are the latest general election voting intention figures from each of the main pollsters currently polling in the UK.

Polling company Con Lab LibDem Ukip Green Con lead Fieldwork Method
BMG 36% 36% 12% 6% 5% 0% 8-11/1 Online
ComRes 37% 39% 9% 6% 3% -2% 30-2/12 Online
Delta Poll 43% 40% 6% 5% 2% 3% 24-26/10 Online
Ipsos-MORI 38% 38% 9% 4% 5% 0% 30-5/12 Phone
Kantar TNS 38% 38% 9% 5% 5% 0% 5-6/12 Online
Opinium 39% 39% 6% 6% 4% 0% 18-20/12 Online
Panelbase 40% 40% 8% 5% 3% 0% 2-7/11 Online
Populus 37% 40% 7% 6% 3% -3% 10-11/12 Online
Survation 38% 41% 10% 4% 2% -3% 9-10/1 Online
YouGov 41% 35% 11% 4% 3% 6% 6-7/1 Online

Italics = poll is over a month old

When looking through the polling figures, remember the warning about individual polls. To put the voting intention numbers into longer context, take a look at PollBase, my database of general election voting intention figures from opinion polls going back to 1945. It is updated quarterly.

These polls are for Great Britain, i.e. excluding Northern Ireland but including both Scotland and Wales, except for Survation, who include Northern Ireland. General election voting intention polls conducted over a smaller area, such as London only, are excluded.

Separate figures are not given for the SNP and Plaid because the relative size of Scotland and Wales means that the percentage vote share for each of the across Great Britain is too low for variations to mean much. (For example, at the 2017 general election, the SNP scored 3% of the total vote across Great Britain. A fall to 2% would be a move that is well within the margin of errors on polls yet also, if accurate, would be a massive hammering in the constituencies it contests.)

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