Latest general election voting intention opinion polls
Welcome to my summary of the latest national voting intention poll from each pollster currently operating in Britain.
If you’d like to find out more about how polls work, how reliable they are and how to make sense of them, check out my book, Polling UnPacked: the History, Uses and Abuses of Political Opinion Polls, or sign up for my weekly email, The Week in Polls:
General election voting intention polls
| Pollster | Con | Lab | LD | Grn | RUK | Con lead | Fieldwork |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WeThink | 25% (-3) | 45% (+1) | 11% (+2) | 5% (-1) | 9% (+1) | -20% | 7-8/12 |
| YouGov | 22% (nc) | 45% (nc) | 10% (+1) | 7% (nc) | 11% (+1) | -23% | 6-7/12 |
| Techne | 22% (-1) | 45% (nc) | 12% (+1) | 7% (nc) | 8% (nc) | -23% | 6-7/12 |
| Redfield & Wilton | 26% (+1) | 42% (-3) | 12% (+1) | 6% (nc) | 10% (nc) | -16% | 3/12 |
| Deltapoll | 27% (-1) | 42% (nc) | 13% (+2) | 6% (nc) | 6% (-1) | -15% | 1-4/12 |
| Savanta | 28% (+2) | 43% (-1) | 11% (nc) | 3% (-2) | 7% (nc) | -15% | 1-3/12 |
| More in Common | 29% (+1) | 41% (-3) | 12% (+2) | 6% (+1) | 8% (nc) | -12% | 30/11-4/12 |
| BMG | 27% (-3) | 43% (nc) | 10% (-1) | 5% (-1) | 11% (+4) | -16% | 28-30/11 |
| Opinium | 26% (-1) | 42% (+2) | 11% (-1) | 7% (nc) | 8% (-1) | -16% | 22-24/11 |
| Stonehaven MRP | 26% (nc) | 40% (+1) | 11% (nc) | 6% (-1) | 8% (nc) | -14% | n/a |
| PeoplePolling | 19% (-2) | 49% (+4) | 9% (nc) | 7% (-1) | 11% (+1) | -30% | 14/11 |
| Find Out Now | 19% (-4) | 46% (+1) | 9% (-1) | 8% (+1) | 10% (+2) | -27% | 13-14/11 |
| Ipsos | 25% (+1) | 46% (+2) | 12% (-1) | 6% (-3) | 4% (nc) | -21% | 1-8/11 |
| Survation | 29% (nc) | 46% (nc) | 10% (-1) | 3% (nc) | 5% (+1) | -17% | 31/10-3/11 |
| 2019 result | 45% | 33% | 12% | 3% | 2% (Brexit) | 12% | – |
| 2017 result | 43% | 41% | 8% | 2% | 2% (Ukip) | 2% | – |
| 2015 result | 38% | 31% | 8% | 4% | 13% (Ukip) | 7% | – |
– indicates that party didn’t feature in the polling questions separate from ‘Others’ or that the data is not yet available.
RUK = Brexit Party or Reform Party.
Numbers in brackets show change since the previous comparable poll (i.e. by the same pollster with the same methodology). Note that natural random variation between samples means a change of a couple of points may well be just statistical noise rather than a real change in support. Very occasionally, a large change will also be noise rather than real change.
nc = no change from previous comparable poll. na = not applicable, i.e. there isn’t a previous comparable poll.
For all the voting intention polls and not just the latest ones, see PollBase, the largest collection of UK voting intention polls, which is updated quarterly.
Understanding different polling firms
You may find these posts useful:
- ‘Waiting for Survation’: a reminder of the value of checking the evidence.
- YouGov: is it biased to the Conservatives?
Frequently Asked Questions
- Why isn’t polling company X in the table?
- Are MRP polls any good?
- How can a poll of just 1,000 people tell us the views of millions of people?
- Margins of error
- How can I see the longer-term trends?
- What about the SNP and Plaid?
- What about Northern Ireland?
- Has the choice of parties biased the poll?
- Aren’t polls just wildly inaccurate these days?
- Are the opinion pollsters regulated?
- How come I don’t know anyone who has been polled?
Why isn’t polling company X in the table?
The table above includes the latest UK or British voting intention poll from each of the currently active reputable pollsters.
If a company isn’t listed this is because it has not carried out a recent poll, it isn’t reputable or I’ve made an error. Please get in touch if you suspect it’s the latter. ‘Reputable’ usually means being a member of the polling industry regulatory body, the British Polling Council (BPC). I occasionally make exceptions, such as for a new polling firm with a good pedigree which hasn’t yet had its BPC membership approved.
Are MRP polls any good?
MRP polls are a way of getting give individual constituency results without having to do a full poll in each constituency. I’ve written a guide to how MRP polls work and whether they’re likely to be right here.
How can a poll of just 1,000 people tell us the views of millions of people?
It can appear baffling that a poll of only 1,000 people is meant to be enough to reveal the mood of a nation of tens of millions of people. But 1,000 or so is indeed enough, as I explain here.
Margins of error
A rough idea of the likely margin of error in any one opinion poll is to think that it’s pretty likely to be within 3 percentage points of the correct result. Anthony Wells explains here in more detail what this margin of error calculation means, and why it does not strictly apply to modern polls. Based on the historic record of polls, the British Polling Council requires its members to use this explanation of the margin of error:
All polls are subject to a wide range of potential sources of error. On the basis of the historical record of the polls at recent general elections, there is a 9 in 10 chance that the true value of a party’s support lies within 4 points of the estimates provided by this poll, and a 2 in 3 chance that they lie within 2 points.
How can I see the longer-term trends?
When looking through the polling figures, remember the much ignored but still very relevant warning about individual polls.
To put the voting intention numbers above into longer context, take a look at PollBase, my database of general election voting intention figures from opinion polls going back to 1945. It is updated quarterly.
What about the SNP and Plaid?
Separate figures are not given for the SNP and Plaid because the relative size of Scotland and Wales means that the percentage vote share for each of the across Great Britain is too low for variations to mean much. (For example, at the 2017 general election, the SNP scored 3% of the total vote across Great Britain. A fall to 2% would be a move that is well within the margin of errors on polls yet also, if accurate, would be a massive hammering in the constituencies it contests.)
What about Northern Ireland?
These polls are for Great Britain, i.e. excluding Northern Ireland but including both Scotland and Wales, except for Survation and Omnisis, who include Northern Ireland. General election voting intention polls conducted over a smaller area, such as London only, are excluded.
Has the choice of parties biased the poll?
A plausible-sounding critique of voting intention opinion polls is over the choice of parties to ask about. These polls list some parties up front and then give an ‘other’ option, behind which sits other, much smaller parties. Labour, for example, will be in the first category but the Women’s Equality Party in the second. Which often leads people to complain that a poll is biased against party X because it is listed in the other section rather than in the main party listing. That sounds plausible, but the evidence is that this doesn’t unfairly depress the support for other parties.
Aren’t polls just wildly inaccurate these days?
Not so: the evidence is that they are still pretty good – and haven’t got worse. Here’s the data that does that myth-busting.
Are the opinion pollsters regulated?
Yes, by the Market Research Society and also by the British Polling Council, which all the reputable political polling firms are members of. The BPC’s rules include requiring pollsters to publish in full the exact questions asked for their polls, protecting against leading questions being secretly asked.
How come I don’t know anyone who has been polled?
You do now.
And for an explanation of why it’s common for people not to have been polled, see this.
How can I find out more about understanding polls?
There’s a chapter on the subject in my book, Bad News, or for a whole book about polls, see Polling UnPacked.
yes how come I do not know anyone who has been polled – how do you come to the conclusions shown ?
Here’s an explanation Eileen: https://www.markpack.org.uk/169051/how-come-i-dont-know-anyone-who-has-been-polled/
Who are Techne?
There’s some information at https://technedcpa.com/about-us/
For a poll to be credabull it has to be 2000 or higher..
Except for some special cases, such as India with its very complicated party system, 1,000 is sufficient to give good results, for the reasons I wrote a little about at https://www.markpack.org.uk/168548/why-is-a-1000-sample-enough-for-an-opinion-poll/
With 1,000 the errors due to the vagaries of sampling are comfortably low enough to be a relatively small problem compared with the risks from other things going wrong with a poll.
The scale of the Conservative split is extraordinary. Even within its parliamentary party and membership it is hopelessly divided and this before one even contemplates the fact that 8-10% of its vote sits in Reform UK. The Brexit referendum was a blatant attempt to heal the splits within the party, and on the right, but they failed. In 2019 Farage won 31% of the vote in the EU election and the splits, acrimony and recriminations have continued ever since. Now the Conservatives are backed into very right wing positions on Rwanda, immigration, tax etc and they face a very heavy defeat. Electoral Calculus this morning puts them on a prediction of 120 seats. What an opportunity for liberalism to reclaim the votes of decent people on all sides of the spectrum who believe in basic decency and fairness. Perhaps Labour now senses that it can win without tactical voting – but a Labour landslide will not deliver a broadly based government offering deep constitutional renewal, proper internationalism through Europe, (genuine) levelling up, a properly green digital growth agenda and the capacity to set a long term course based on a majority of the popular vote.