Political

Latest general election voting intention opinion polls

Welcome to my summary of the latest national voting intention poll from each pollster currently operating in Britain.

If you’d like to find out more about how polls work, how reliable they are and how to make sense of them, check out my book, Polling UnPacked: the History, Uses and Abuses of Political Opinion Polls, or sign up for my weekly email, The Week in Polls:

General election voting intention polls

– indicates that party didn’t feature in the polling questions separate from ‘Others’ or that the data is not yet available.
Numbers in brackets show change since the previous comparable poll (i.e. by the same pollster with the same methodology). Note that natural random variation between samples means a change of a couple of points may well be just statistical noise rather than a real change in support. Very occasionally, a large change will also be noise rather than real change.
nc = no change from previous comparable poll.

For all the voting intention polls and not just the latest ones, see PollBase, the largest collection of UK voting intention polls, which is updated quarterly.

PollsterConLabLDGrnRefLab leadFieldwork
Whitestone19%
(-3)
41%
(-1)
11%
(+2)
6%
(+1)
17%
(+1)
22%12-13/6
Techne19%
(-1)
43%
(-1)
11%
(+1)
6%
(nc)
16%
(+1)
24%12-13/6
Redfield &
Wilton
18%
(-1)
42%
(-3)
13%
(+3)
5%
(nc)
17%
(nc)
24%12-13/6
WeThink20%
(nc)
43%
(-2)
11%
(+1)
6%
(+1)
14%
(-1)
23%12-13/6
YouGov18%
(nc)
37%
(-1)
14%
(-1)
7%
(-1)
19%
(+2)
18%
(over Ref.)
12-13/6
BMG21%
(-2)
41%
(-1)
12%
(+3)
6%
(nc)
14%
(-2)
20%11-12/6
PeoplePolling19%
(-1)
39%
(-7)
10%
(+2)
17%
(+3)
20%11-12/6
More in Common25%
(-2)
41%
(-3)
10%
(+1)
5%
(-1)
13%
(+2)
16%11-12/6
Norstat21%
(-1)
41%
(-4)
11%
(+1)
6%
(+1)
17%
(+3)
20%10-12/6
Focaldata24%
(-1)
42%
(-2)
9%
(nc)
5%
(nc)
15%
(+1)
18%7-11/6
Verian20%
(-3)
41%
(nc)
11%
(-1)
8%
(nc)
15%
(+6)
21%7-10/6
Savanta25%
(-1)
44%
(-2)
9%
(-1)
4%
(+1)
10%
(-1)
19%7-9/6
JL Partners24%
(-2)
41%
(-2)
11%
(nc)
5%
(+2)
15%
(+3)
17%7-9/6
Lord Ashcroft21%
(-2)
43%
(-4)
7%
(+1)
7%
(+1)
15%
(+4)
22%6-10/6
Deltapoll21%
(-4)
46%
(-2)
9%
(-1)
5%
(+1)
12%
(+3)
25%6-8/6
Survation
(phone)
23%41%10%6%12%18%5-11/6
Opinium24%
(-1)
42%
(-3)
10%
(+2)
7%
(+1)
12%
(+1)
18%5-7/6
Survation
(online)
23%
(-1)
43%
(-4)
9%
(-2)
5%
(+2)
15%
(+7)
20%5-6/6
Ipsos23%
(+3)
43%
(+2)
8%
(-3)
9%
(-2)
9%
(nc)
20%31/5-4/6
YouGov
MRP
25%
(+1)
43%
(+2)
11%
(-1)
7%
(nc)
10%
(-2)
18%24/5-1/6
Survation MRP24%
(-2)
43%
(-2)
10%
(nc)
4%
(nc)
11%
(+2)
19%22/5-2/6
Find Out Now /
Electoral Calculus
19%
(-3)
46%
(+4)
10%
(-1)
8%
(+1)
12%
(+2)
27%20-27/5
More in Common
MRP
29%43%11%5%8%14%9/4-29/5
2019 result45%33%12%3%2%
(Brexit)
-12%

Understanding different polling firms

You may find these posts useful:

Frequently Asked Questions

Why isn’t polling company X in the table?

The table above includes the latest UK or British voting intention poll from each of the currently active reputable pollsters.

If a company isn’t listed this is because it has not carried out a recent poll, it isn’t reputable or I’ve made an error. Please get in touch if you suspect it’s the latter. ‘Reputable’ usually means being a member of the polling industry regulatory body, the British Polling Council (BPC). I occasionally make exceptions, such as for a new polling firm with a good pedigree which hasn’t yet had its BPC membership approved.

Are MRP polls any good?

MRP polls are a way of getting give individual constituency results without having to do a full poll in each constituency. I’ve written a guide to how MRP polls work and whether they’re likely to be right here.

How can a poll of just 1,000 people tell us the views of millions of people?

It can appear baffling that a poll of only 1,000 people is meant to be enough to reveal the mood of a nation of tens of millions of people. But 1,000 or so is indeed enough, as I explain here.

Margins of error

A rough idea of the likely margin of error in any one opinion poll is to think that it’s pretty likely to be within 3 percentage points of the correct result. Anthony Wells explains here in more detail what this margin of error calculation means, and why it does not strictly apply to modern polls. Based on the historic record of polls, the British Polling Council requires its members to use this explanation of the margin of error:

All polls are subject to a wide range of potential sources of error. On the basis of the historical record of the polls at recent general elections, there is a 9 in 10 chance that the true value of a party’s support lies within 4 points of the estimates provided by this poll, and a 2 in 3 chance that they lie within 2 points.

When looking through the polling figures, remember the much ignored but still very relevant warning about individual polls.

To put the voting intention numbers above into longer context, take a look at PollBase, my database of general election voting intention figures from opinion polls going back to 1945. It is updated quarterly.

What about the SNP and Plaid?

Separate figures are not given for the SNP and Plaid because the relative size of Scotland and Wales means that the percentage vote share for each of the across Great Britain is too low for variations to mean much. (For example, at the 2017 general election, the SNP scored 3% of the total vote across Great Britain. A fall to 2% would be a move that is well within the margin of errors on polls yet also, if accurate, would be a massive hammering in the constituencies it contests.)

What about Northern Ireland?

These polls are for Great Britain, i.e. excluding Northern Ireland but including both Scotland and Wales, except for Survation and Omnisis, who include Northern Ireland. General election voting intention polls conducted over a smaller area, such as London only, are excluded.

Has the choice of parties biased the poll?

A plausible-sounding critique of voting intention opinion polls is over the choice of parties to ask about. These polls list some parties up front and then give an ‘other’ option, behind which sits other, much smaller parties. Labour, for example, will be in the first category but the Women’s Equality Party in the second. Which often leads people to complain that a poll is biased against party X because it is listed in the other section rather than in the main party listing. That sounds plausible, but the evidence is that this doesn’t unfairly depress the support for other parties.

Aren’t polls just wildly inaccurate these days?

Not so: the evidence is that they are still pretty good – and haven’t got worse. Here’s the data that does that myth-busting.

Are the opinion pollsters regulated?

Yes, by the Market Research Society and also by the British Polling Council, which all the reputable political polling firms are members of. The BPC’s rules include requiring pollsters to publish in full the exact questions asked for their polls, protecting against leading questions being secretly asked.

How come I don’t know anyone who has been polled?

You do now.

And for an explanation of why it’s common for people not to have been polled, see this.

How can I find out more about understanding polls?

There’s a chapter on the subject in my book, Bad News, or for a whole book about polls, see Polling UnPacked.

17 responses to “Latest general election voting intention opinion polls”

  1. Can we trust the YouGov vote, given their political affiliations and right wing agenda, as reported in the Guardian newspaper.

  2. Hi Mark,

    Is it true that the incumbent government can expect to add 5pc to its polling before election day?

    • There’s often been a closing in the polls, but we’ve not yet seen the sort of closing that usually happens – so there’s good reason to doubt whether it will start now. Though perhaps history will reassert itself. We’ll soon know!

  3. How can JLP report a Labour lead of 12% and the next day YouGov report a Labour lead of 27%?

    Is this a methodology difference between the two pollsters or is something fishy going on here?

  4. I do not think that we will see the predicted Labour landslide.
    As I understand it, there are quite a few people that say they are going to vote when polled, but come the day they do not. This is generally a potential Labour voter phenomenon.
    Also, I think the compulsory electoral id will hit Labour harder than any of the other parties.
    And as has been previously mentioned the gap usually tends to narrow in favour of the sitting government.
    For these reasons, I expect a Labour victory, but with a relatively small majority of around 20 to 30 seats.
    Furthermore I would not be surprised or shocked, even at this late stage, the Conservatives and Reform do come to some sort of union to try and avoid a Labour government. Which would obviously completely change everything.

    • If you are correct then everything Mark Pack and pollsters have said about this election would be the biggest error ever in polling history! I somehow would go with the experts with the historic error margin than your assumptions but if you are correct then tell me ‘who will win the Grand National please’

    • I have been saying for a long time, that a hung parliament is as much a probability as a labour majority, due to the fact none of the parties have a leader really worth voting for. I should think those who usually vote conservative and don’t wish to this time, will go to either lib/dem or reform

  5. Just wanted to say, I prefer to go to your site more than any other, as it seems to be the most objective of all of them. Thank you

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