Uniform national swing (UNS): what it is and how useful it is.
The question of whether or not uniform national swing (UNS) calculations are a sensible way of trying to turn national opinion poll vote figures into seat estimates has been much debated in the last few months. So how did UNS do in 2010? … Read the full post »
The number of seats each party wins is only very loosely related to how many votes it gets across the country. … Read the full post »
Presenting a new analysis of the merits of the two main ways of converting party vote shares in to seat number projections… … Read the full post »
The difference between the marginals and national polling, when both were conducted by the same organisation at the same time, does give a good reason to shout “that’s a load of nonsense!” at your computer. … Read the full post »