The question of whether or not uniform national swing (UNS) calculations are a sensible way of trying to turn national opinion poll vote figures into seat estimates has been much debated in the last few months. So how did UNS do in 2010? … Read the full post »
Uniform national swing (UNS): what it is and how useful it is.
The number of seats each party wins is only very loosely related to how many votes it gets across the country. … Read the full post »
Presenting a new analysis of the merits of the two main ways of converting party vote shares in to seat number projections:
Although uniform national swing (UNS) calculations are widely used to extrapolate likely seat numbers from party’s national ratings and have the merit of simplicity, they are not without their critics. For example, in November … Read the full post »
The difference between the marginals and national polling, when both were conducted by the same organisation at the same time, does give a good reason to shout “that’s a load of nonsense!” at your computer. … Read the full post »