Uniform national swing (UNS): what it is and how useful it is.

Political

How did uniform national swing (UNS) do in 2010?

The question of whether or not uniform national swing (UNS) calculations are a sensible way of trying to turn national opinion poll vote figures into seat estimates has been much debated in the last few months. So how did UNS do in 2010? … Read the full post »

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Political

Uniform versus proportional swing: which is best?

Presenting a new analysis of the merits of the two main ways of converting party vote shares in to seat number projections:
Although uniform national swing (UNS) calculations are widely used to extrapolate likely seat numbers from partyโ€™s national ratings and have the merit of simplicity, they are not without their critics. For example, in November … Read the full post »