Recession, recession, everywhere?

David Smith’s column in today’s Sunday Times caught my eye in part because of my recent experiences with suppliers the party uses.

He wrote:

Something odd is happening. Recessions are grim but you expect compensations such as quiet roads, empty trains and helpful shop assistants.

This may be a London thing, but to me roads are busier and on train and Tube journeys I get closer to fellow passengers than is comfortable. As for shops, maybe the retail trade is too miserable, though it is common to find that, when you are ready to buy, the item is not in stock.

In the last couple of months, suppliers who I deal with have generally tightened up their terms for payment and become keener to ensure that the invoice has been received, payment is on its way etc. But there has not been nearly as big a shift as I would have expected given the overall state of the economy. And overall whilst they are tightening their belts, they don’t seem to be running into serious financial problems yet.

But there’s no doubt that there is a real, nasty recession out there which is bringing hardship to many. Why the gap in experiences though, just as David Smith highlighted?

The answer perhaps lies in the huge range of results recorded in the latest range of economic indicators:

Unemployment (ILO measure): +290,000
Manufacturing output: -5.2%
Industrial production: -5.0%
Service sector production: +0.6%
Retail sales volume: +3.9%

(All figures are for the three months to November, compared with a year ago. Source: The Treasury, 23 January)

Now may not be the time for me to go into the chocolate manufacturing business.