Further modest Lib Dem progress, but seat gains continue to be elusive
Six council by-elections this week, with two defences each for Conservatives, Labour and Ukip.
The party gaining seats so far is Labour, with one gain each from Conservatives and Ukip:
Marine (Worthing) result:
LAB: 47.4% (+27.8)
CON: 38.8% (-6.4)
LDEM: 11.3% (+1.1)
GRN: 2.5% (-6.2)No UKIP as previous.
— Britain Elects (@BritainElects) August 3, 2017
Margate Central (Thanet) result:
LAB: 57.5% (+23.7)
CON: 24.1% (+3.6)
UKIP: 6.6% (-25.2)
LDEM: 4.2%
IND : 3.0%
GRN: 2.9% (-8.6)
IND: 1.6%— Britain Elects (@BritainElects) August 4, 2017
In these wards as elsewhere the pattern is of Lib Dem vote increases and candidates where previously there had been none – but none of the sort of seat gains that were so regular between the 2016 referendum and the 2017 general election:
Penshurst, Fordcombe & Chiddingstone (Sevenoaks) result:
CON: 58.8% (+5.5)
LDEM: 34.0% (+0.2)
LAB: 7.2% (+7.2)Con HOLD.
No Grn as prev.— Britain Elects (@BritainElects) August 3, 2017
Shelthorpe (Charnwood) result:
LAB: 45.5% (+5.8)
CON: 45.2% (+0.1)
LDEM: 7.1% (+7.1)
UKIP: 2.2% (+2.2)No Grn as prev.
Multi member ward.— Britain Elects (@BritainElects) August 3, 2017
It’s worth noting how weak the Green performance continues to be, something to bear in mind as discussions about possible pacts with the Greens was a feature of the run-up to the general election and the cause of the Lib Dems not standing in two other Parliamentary constituencies in addition to the usual no-show in the Speaker’s seat.
Then in the final two results, another Labour gain from Ukip and a Conservative gain from Labour. The pattern here reinforces the picture from the early results, especially Lib Dem vote increases not going far enough to turn into the sort of gains previously seen:
Milton Regis (Swale) result:
LAB: 53.8% (+25.1)
CON: 23.9% (-9.8)
UKIP: 14.2% (-14.7)
LDEM: 8.1% (-0.5)Labour GAIN from UKIP.
— Britain Elects (@BritainElects) August 4, 2017
St Margarets w/ St Nicholas (King's Lynn):
CON: 36.2% (-6.6)
LAB: 30.0% (-3.1)
LDEM: 24.7% (+24.7)
GRN: 9.0% (-15.1)Con GAIN from Lab.
— Britain Elects (@BritainElects) August 4, 2017
Ward is two member. Lab were defending from second place, hence share changes imply Con hold.
— Britain Elects (@BritainElects) August 4, 2017
These by-election results round-ups cover principal authority by-elections. See my post The danger in celebrating parish and town council wins for your own party for the reasons to avoid straying too often into covering town, parish or community council by-elections.
Interesting results. The Labour Remain vote that secured them such a huge swing in the GE appears to be holding up in these results.
Do you follow Mark Gallsworthy, Scientists againt Brexit/for the EU? His last post addresses the implications of the recent GE poll analysis.