Full slate of Lib Dem candidates and up into second in Rishi Sunak’s constituency

Five principal authority council by -elections this week, and a full set of Liberal Democrat candidates to go with that.

First off, a result from a ward in Rishi Sunak’s constituency:

Congratulations to Duncan Russell and the team for taking the Lib Dems up into second place in this ward.

Thank you to Ian Jenkins for being the Liberal Democrat candidate.

Next to Scotland, and the tough task of trying to defend a seat won under STV in a by-election held with AV:

Commiserations to Charles Stephen and the team.

Congratulations to new councillor Carmina McConnell.

Robert McClenning is the new Lib Dem councillor – congratulations.

For what all this means for the running total of council by-election results since the last May elections, see my council by-elections scorecard here.

These by-election results round-ups cover principal authority by-elections as it’s only those for which comprehensive results are available.

Understanding the opinion polls

For understanding what is happening in politics, by-elections have the advantage of being real votes in real ballot boxes. But the opinion polls have the advantage of trying to be a representative sample of voters, not just those in the places that happen to have by-elections. To understand the polls properly – and what they do and don’t really tell us – see my book, Polling UnPacked: The History, Uses and Abuses of Political Opinion Polls.

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