Lib Dems gain council seat in Cambridge by-election
After this week’s Wednesday by-election, Thursday brought two more principal authority by-elections. Both of these council by-elections had Lib Dem candidates, which is up one on the last time the wards were up.
First up, a Lib Dem gain from independent:
Congratulations to new councillor Immy Blackburn-Horgan and the team.
David Terrar was the Liberal Democrat candidate after a no-show for the party last time. Thank you.
For what all this means for the running total of council by-election results since the last May elections, see my council by-elections scorecard here.
These by-election results round-ups cover principal authority by-elections as it’s only those for which comprehensive results are available. But this week, these by-elections at the town/parish/community council level did catch my eye:
Understanding the opinion polls
For understanding what is happening in politics, by-elections have the advantage of being real votes in real ballot boxes. But the opinion polls have the advantage of trying to be a representative sample of voters, not just those in the places that happen to have by-elections. To understand the polls properly – and what they do and don’t really tell us – see my book, Polling UnPacked: The History, Uses and Abuses of Political Opinion Polls.
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If you sign up for my daily email with the latest pieces from this site, you’ll also get included as a little bonus the full set of council by-election results each week:
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It seems that in Newham at least the war in the Middle East has had a dire effect on the Labour vote. I assume that the two independent candidates were Muslim and that they disagreed with the Labour line on ceasefires. If this kind of defection happens in a GE how many seats would Labour lose?