Is the terror threat to Britain growing?

Jacqui Smith, Home Secretary, April 2008: there are “30 active plots” and “since the beginning of 2007, there have been 57 people convicted on terrorist plots.”

Peter Clarke the head of the Metropolitan Police Anti-Terrorist Branch and national coordinator for anti-terrorist investigations, July 2006: Scotland Yard involved in 70 anti-terrorist investigations and over 60 people facing trial on terrorist charges.

It’s true that Clarke and Smith didn’t use exactly the same terms – “plot” vs “investigation” and “facing trial” versus “convicted” (an important difference!).

But, terrorist trials have very high conviction rates (over 90%) and almost by definition what anti-terrorist police investigate are plots. It is hard to see in these figures any backing for Jacqui Smith’s claim that the terrorist threat is growing and that therefore draconian extra powers are needed.