Welcome to my posts about politics; mainly British politics and with quite a lot of political opinion polling and election law thrown in too.


Did tactical voting sites benefit the Liberal Democrats?

Interesting initial analysis by Chris Hanretty based on looking at the difference that being backed by a tactical voting site made to the Lib Dem vote share in a constituency, after allowing for differences between seats such as previous levels of party support and different demographics:

We find that the estimate of the effect on the Lib Dem vote share of being endorsed by Best for Britain is around 5 percentage points (95% CI*: 4 to 6 percentage points).

The equivalent figure for Remain United is smaller (2.6 percentage points), but significantly different from zero (95% CI: 1.1 to 4.1 percentage points).

You can read his full analysis here.


* CI = confidence interval, i.e. the range of values which we can be 95% sure contains the real figure.


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