The following graph shows all the leaders of the Labour Party who have been in post when the party has been in opposition at the time of at least one round of annual council elections. … Read the full post »
Read about the work of political scientist and expert gatherer of political data, Michael Thrasher. who often works in tandem with Colin Rallings.
The annual council election predictions from Michael Thrasher and Colin Rallings are out, based on what has been happening in council by-elections. … Read the full post »
A little belatedly, it’s time for the 2017 version of my annual post about the gender balance amongst council candidates and councillors in the big May round of elections. … Read the full post »
There are important lessons from “Unused Votes in English Local Government Elections: Effects and Explanations” by Colin Rallings, Michael Thrasher and Galina Borisyuk. … Read the full post »
Liberal Democrat Newswire #91 came out last week, with a special focus on the May elections: the by-election in Manchester Gorton and Lib Dem prospects in the council contests. … Read the full post »
The Liberal Democrats are tipped to be the big winners from May’s local elections according to the predictions made by Michael Thrasher and Colin Rallings. … Read the full post »
The proportion of Liberal Democrat local council candidates candidates who are female continued to flat-line in 2016 as it has now for nearly thirty years. … Read the full post »
On average the Tories slightly over-perform the Thrasher / Rallings forecasts, but the level of variation makes that a pattern of limited use for interpreting future forecasts.
… Read the full post »
Unlike the consistent over-estimation of the Lib Dems, for Labour the Thrasher and Rallings predictions have a lot more variation – including a spectacular failure in 2013. … Read the full post »
As I warned in advance, the Thrasher and Rallings prediction for the Lib Dem vote share in the 2016 local elections was indeed on the high side. … Read the full post »