Read my posts featuring Mike Smithson, polling expert and the founder of political betting website Political Betting.

Lib Dem Voice

When up is down and down is up

A quick explanation for people who are new to pouring over the details of polls and, as several people have commented, are confused by the conflicting figures given for whether a party is up or down and if so by how much in a poll.
Different polling companies use different methods, so comparing – say – … Read the full post »

Lib Dem Voice

Is David Herdson right about Labour and the Lib Dems?

Over on Political Betting, David Herdson has several times made comments such as this:
Since the start of March, there have been sixty national opinion polls published and they have shown a remarkable consistency in the total share identified for Labour plus Lib Dems. When one party rises, the other tends to fall.
I’ve been intrigued by … Read the full post »

technology

Why was Clifford Stoll so wrong?

In the late 1980s and 1990s Clifford Stoll was a best-selling author, recounting tales of tracking down hackers and with an impressive technical knowledge of how to find out who was doing what online. As a pundit though he’s turned out to be rather less good and in particular a 1995 piece of his often … Read the full post »