political

Labour are biggest losers from UKIP’s surge

Look how the votes have changed this year compared to last (using the BBC’s national equivalent vote share projections, i.e. this is comparing like with like as it adjusts for the different range of seats up for election):

Local elections graph - Labour are biggest losers

 

UPDATES:

  • There’s a good follow up piece by John Rentoul over on the Independent website.
  • I thought the text in brackets at the top of this post was pretty clear :), but judging by some of the reactions to this post along the lines of ‘OMG! That can’t possibly be true! You’re not comparing like with like!’, it’s worth emphasising the point again – these figures are about what has happened to the levels of support for parties in 2013 compared with 2012. The figures take into account the different range of wards up for election last year and this as they are national equivalent vote share calculations. This post on the LSE site has a good introduction to what those calculations are and what they mean.

 
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Trackbacks

  1. […] But at least as importantly, both know that Ukip’s popularity impacts directly on their own. In last May’s local elections, when Ukip surprised everyone, Labour’s vote went down more sharply than did the Tories’ – as Mark Pack highlighted here. […]

  2. […] Moreover, the Ford/Goodwin argument sees different sources of support for UKIP at different points in its history: “The Conservative Party are always a big source of UKIP recruits, but they are not consistently the main source, in fact there is clear evidence that UKIP mobilizes discontent with whichever party is in charge. The party won many recruits from Labour during the Blair and Brown governments, indeed more UKIP voters in this period came from Labour than from the Conservatives … UKIP’s success in mobilising discontent with the government may come at the expense of the main opposition party.” Indeed that’s what happened in the 2013 local elections. […]

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