“Perhaps the biggest polling movement in recent UK history that almost no-one has heard of”: so writes Roger Scully of the Labour Party’s collapse in Welsh opinion polls:
Labour have lost a third of their support in the Welsh polls in the last two years. In the most recent Barometer poll (published on 27th January) Labour is at 37%, barely above its 2010 vote share. This is no outlier, by the way – all of the last six published polls have put Labour below 40% in Wales. Nor have Labour’s problems been confined to the polls: the party ended up winning only one of the four Welsh seats in the European elections, barely finishing ahead of UKIP in vote share.
More details and all the stats are in Roger Scully’s post. As he says, it’s a dramatic shift, and it’s a large unheralded shift.