Scottish Liberal Democrats believe their own research indicates they can retain a key north-east seat despite earlier gloomy polls.
Last week polling conducted by Tory peer Lord Ashcroft showed that Sir Robert Smith faced defeat in West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine with a 20.5% swing to the SNP.
But the Lib Dems claimed his findings are flawed because they do not take into account personal recognition – and now the party thinks it has the data to prove it.
Polling by Survation which looks at voting intentions broken down by individual candidates in West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine puts the Lib Dems holding onto the seat.
When asked if there was a general election tomorrow, who would people vote for knowing who was standing, 30.4% opted for Sir Robert.
The result will be a blow for the SNP as 25.3% said they would vote for their candidate Stu Donaldson, behind Scottish Tory Alexander Burnett 26.6%. Labour’s Barry Black polled 11.5%.
I understand that the methodology and means of conducting the poll are the same as the one carried out in Hornsey & Wood Green so the reference to polling “by Survation” isn’t quite correct. They did the fieldwork.
The 30% Lib Dem score in this poll compares with 20% in the constituency voting question in the Ashcroft constituency poll and the 5 point Lib Dem lead compares with a 19 point SNP lead.
As with the Hornsey & Wood Green poll, this poll strongly suggests that naming candidates make a significant difference to the results pollsters get. Given that candidates are named on the ballot paper, the onus really should be on those who poll without naming candidates to explain why they believe that is the more accurate approach to take.