Political

Voting intention opinion polls 1943-present: Q3 2018, with a missing Labour lead

The latest quarterly update to my PollBase, my database of British voting intention opinion polls since 1943 is now up.

What’s perhaps most striking about the opinion polls over the last quarter is what isn’t there: a large Labour lead. At this point in the 1992-97 Parliament, the last time Labour went from opposition to power, Tony Blair was 15 to 20 points up in the polls. Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour, by contrast, is now back to being consistently behind in the polls and has never built up a lead anything like that.

Aside from another three months of data, this update includes:

  • Addition of Sky News polls from 2015 onwards which, although only carried out amongst Sky subscribers, are weighted to be nationally representative and are carried out in line with the British Polling Council’s rules. More details here.
  • Additional BMG leadership ratings and preferred Prime Minister scores for both the 2015 and 2017 Parliaments. In addition, the figures now consistently are reported without being recalculated to exclude don’t knows. This brings them into line with how similar figures from other firms report their figures, although The Independent’s media coverage often gives the recalculated figures only. Thank you to Michael Turner and BMG for providing the extra data.

Enjoy!

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I release a new edition of PollBase once a quarter, both adding in the new national voting intention polls from the last quarter and also improving the older data, such as filling in gaps and making some of the columns clearer.

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