Chris Hanretty has worked his statistical expertise once again, and come up with high-quality calculations (estimates) as to what the European Parliament election result was in each Westminster constituency.
As he cautions, “These figures remain estimates, and so they are subject to error.” Plus, of course, they are figures for the votes in a European Parliament election held in May 2019 using the d’Hondt system of proportional representation. That is not the same as saying what will happen in another sort of election held using a different voting system on another date.
Here is the spreadsheet with all the estimates:
Chris Hanretty’s methodology
Here is his methodology note explaining how the calculations were done.