Political

Chunky swing from Labour to Lib Dem in Camden by-election

One principal authority council by-election this week, in Camden in North London.

It brought a promising result for Patrick Stillman and the Lib Dem team, with the Lib Dem vote share up by seven percentage points, and that despite there being a Green candidate this time around. That made for a 13 point swing from Labour, who held the seat:

As with last week’s by-election, it’s another promising sign of the party growing in strength in newer areas.

The campaigning was clearly worthwhile!

For what all this means for the running total of council by-election results since the last May elections, see my council by-elections scorecard here.

These by-election results round-ups cover principal authority by-elections as it’s only those for which comprehensive results are available.

Understanding the opinion polls

For understanding what is happening in politics, by-elections have the advantage of being real votes in real ballot boxes. But the opinion polls have the advantage of trying to be a representative sample of voters, not just those in the places that happen to have by-elections. To understand the polls properly – and what they do and don’t really tell us – see my book, Polling UnPacked: The History, Uses and Abuses of Political Opinion Polls.

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If you sign up for my daily email with the latest pieces from this site, you’ll also get included as a little bonus the full set of council by-election results each week:

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