Lib Dems hold council seat in split Con/Lib Dem ward
After this week’s Tuesday by-election with both its unusual timing and its unusual result, Thursday saw two more principal authority council by-elections.
First, a tricky Lib Dem defence in a ward that split Conservative/Lib Dem last time, with the Conservatives coming top of the poll:
Congratulations to new councillor Chris Passmore and the team.
Note again how lowly Reform UK’s result was. By-election results like that add up to evidence suggesting the pollsters giving Reform UK the highest scores at the moment are exaggerating their support.
The other contest was in Scotland:
Thank you to Jake Stevenson for being the Lib Dem candidate.
For what all this means for the running total of council by-election results since the last May elections, see my council by-elections scorecard here.
These by-election results round-ups cover principal authority by-elections as it’s only those for which comprehensive results are available.
Understanding the opinion polls
For understanding what is happening in politics, by-elections have the advantage of being real votes in real ballot boxes. But the opinion polls have the advantage of trying to be a representative sample of voters, not just those in the places that happen to have by-elections. To understand the polls properly – and what they do and don’t really tell us – see my book, Polling UnPacked: The History, Uses and Abuses of Political Opinion Polls.
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Although if the Reform Party had any actual activists campaigning they might get more votes. The paper put out by us and the Greens was significant. The Conservatives struggled to get their leaflets out and according to my sources have problems accessing data from previous campaigns due to issues with Party HQ, so struggled with knocking up due to little or no canvassing this time, and no past data. Another point was only we did any telling.
Another feature was the appetence of the National Record holder for the lowest vote in a national election since the Reform Act Yolanda Kenward (real name Lindridge) wit, h a conspiracy filled leaflet, which amongst other things accuses the West of starting the Ukraine War. Sadly 56 people voted for her.