Big swing from Labour to Lib Dems in London by-election

After Wednesday’s two by-elections, Thursday brought a Parliamentary by-election and two further principal authority council contests.

The results include a really impressive move up into second place in Lambeth, in the ward containing MI6’s HQ:

Many congratulations to Fareed Alderechi and the team, who ran a really impressive campaign.

Elsewhere, ahead of the Tamworth by-election, there was a council one too:

The last time there was a Lib Dem candidate in this ward was 2004.

Finally, and at Parliamentary level:

Thank you to Gloria Adebo for being the Liberal Democrat candidate.

For what all this means for the running total of council by-election results since the last May elections, see my council by-elections scorecard here.

These by-election results round-ups cover principal authority by-elections as it’s only those for which comprehensive results are available. But this week, yet another gain in Wiltshire at the town/parish/community council level did catch my eye:

Understanding the opinion polls

For understanding what is happening in politics, by-elections have the advantage of being real votes in real ballot boxes. But the opinion polls have the advantage of trying to be a representative sample of voters, not just those in the places that happen to have by-elections. To understand the polls properly – and what they do and don’t really tell us – see my book, Polling UnPacked: The History, Uses and Abuses of Political Opinion Polls.

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