Political

Liberal Democrats gain council seat in Bolton

Five Liberal Democrat candidates for the six principal authority by-elections this week, which is up two on the last time these wards were up.

First up, a pair of results from Bolton:

Deirdre McGeown and the Lib Dem team

Congratulations to new Liberal Democrat candidate Deirdre McGeown and the team.

Thanks to Charles Cooper for being the Liberal Democrat candidate.

Congratulations and commiserations to Lib Dem candidate Samantha Louden-Cooke on getting so close to winning a ward the party hadn’t contested the previous two times.

Thank you to Robert McGeorge for getting the Liberal Democrats on the ballot paper after no shows the previous two times the ward was up.

Bryony Davies was the Liberal Democrat candidate; thank you.

For what all this means for the running total of council by-election results since the last May elections, see my council by-elections scorecard here.

These by-election results round-ups cover principal authority by-elections as it’s only those for which comprehensive results are available.

Understanding the opinion polls

For understanding what is happening in politics, by-elections have the advantage of being real votes in real ballot boxes. But the opinion polls have the advantage of trying to be a representative sample of voters, not just those in the places that happen to have by-elections. To understand the polls properly – and what they do and don’t really tell us – see my book, Polling UnPacked: The History, Uses and Abuses of Political Opinion Polls.

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