Constituency poll vs MRP: Godalming and Ash
How does the new Survation constituency poll in Godalming and Ash constituency (to be contested by the Chancellor, Jeremy Hunt) compare with recent MRP projections for that seat?
Here’s how, including how Survation’s poll compares with its own previous MRP figures for the seat:
| Survation (poll, Mar) | Electoral Calculus (latest) | YouGov (Jan) | Stonehaven (Nov) | Survation (MRP, Oct) | 2019 result* | |
| Conservative | 29 | 33.8 | 32 | 31.8 | 40 | 53.4 |
| Lib Dem | 35 | 32.6 | 35 | 35.5 | 27 | 34.1 |
| Labour | 23 | 20.4 | 16 | 14.5 | 25 | 8.9 |
| Con. lead | -6 | +1.2 | -3 | -3.7 | +13 | +19.3 |
Related, The Guardian reports:
Jeremy Hunt has been forced to contribute more than £100,000 of his own money to his constituency Conservative party to bolster his chances of re-election, official records show, amid warnings that he is set to lose his seat.
Hunt’s Godalming and Ash constituency is a target seat for the Liberal Democrats, and a Survation poll projects that he is on course to become the first chancellor in modern times to lose at a general election.
Electoral Commission records show that he has given £105,261 to the South-west Surrey Conservative association over the last five years.
The chancellor’s personal donations to the association under the last three Conservative prime ministers stand in stark contrast to the total £4,447 he gifted under the leadership of Theresa May and David Cameron.
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