Reasons to be optimistic about the future of our town centres
Although Julian Dobson finds his graph of level of retail development in our town centres a cause for pessimism, I actually find it grounds for quiet optimism.
As his graph shows, the volume of such development fell steadily for around 25 years – as out of town developments took off – but then started rising modestly in the next ten years. Although he’s right to highlight how that trend is likely to have been knocked off course by the recession, I am quietly optimistic for three reasons.
First, turning round a 25 year story of decline is in itself a major achievement. Even if the picture now deteriorates in a way similar to the early 1990s recession, the situation will still be much better than if that trend had continued. Moreover, town centre development did recover from that recession.
Second, although town centre versus out of town development is not a zero-sum game, they are to a large extent alternatives – and the current recession has hit both out of town and town centre business. In terms of the long term shift in the balance between out of town and town centre shopping, both being hit by the recession isn’t necessarily bad news for the balance.Third, there is still a strong political will to make town centres more vibrant and to shift away from out of town. The recession hasn’t, for example, brought huge cries of support for loosening planning rules so that new developments can be built out of town. We are also continuing to see some good experiments at ways of promoting town centres.
To go back to Julian Dobson’s piece:
Mike Riddell from Insite Asset Management explained his idea of creating local loyalty cards, giving local businesses, public services and voluntary organisations the same kind of smart information Tesco uses so effectively – but for local benefit rather than shareholder profit. Pie in the sky? Pie might be appropriate, as it’s being piloted in Wigan. If that can work, there’s no end of potential.
So yes, it’s tough for many during the recession. But so far there isn’t a particular reason to fear the recession driving business out of town centres and in to out of town locations.
Taking advice on urban regeneration from the incompetent Bradford-based quangonauts of Yorkshire Forward is on a par with asking Godfrey Bloom MEP to chair some seminars on equality in the workplace. What with the fiascos over the Odeon and the Westfield development, Bradford Regen and YF have some real brass neck holding an event called the “Regeneration Academy” in this supreme example of a city with a failed centre.
Mark, thanks for the link and the post. I suspect this could be one of those glass half full/glass half empty arguments. I think, like you, that there’s hope for our town centres, but I don’t think we can assume the current trajectory will continue without significant encouragement.
We’re hearing mixed messages from the Conservatives at the moment about what they intend to do about planning, but the idea of a strong lead from the centre isn’t one of them. The deregulation they intend to introduce to avoid centrally-imposed housing targets may come back to haunt them if they find themselves unable to halt out-of-town shopping centres approved by individual local authorities keen to grab the business before their neighbours do.
As for burkesworks’ comment, I think there’s a realisation in Bradford that things need to be done better. The Regeneration Academy is a serious effort to improve council officers’ skills. I wouldn’t write off the idea of training people just because they’ve messed up in the past.
Thanks for those comments Julian. As you say, it probably is a case of glass half full / empty.