Local elections analysis update: Lib Dem votes and Remain voters

An update on my local election results analysis, with this handy table from John Curtice showing how the changes in party support varied depending on how Remain or Leave an area was in the European referendum:

Vote share changes in 2019 local elections by proportion of Leave voters

The short version: the more Remain an area, generally the better the Liberal Democrat result. As John Curtice’s more detailed analysis points out, that shift looks mostly to have taken place prior to the most recent Brexit impasse. That suggests the shift is a more long-term change rather than one driven just by most recent events – which is good news from the creation of a Liberal Democrat core vote.


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