Local elections analysis update: Lib Dem votes and Remain voters
An update on my local election results analysis, with this handy table from John Curtice showing how the changes in party support varied depending on how Remain or Leave an area was in the European referendum:
The short version: the more Remain an area, generally the better the Liberal Democrat result. As John Curtice’s more detailed analysis points out, that shift looks mostly to have taken place prior to the most recent Brexit impasse. That suggests the shift is a more long-term change rather than one driven just by most recent events – which is good news from the creation of a Liberal Democrat core vote.
Always worth remembering that differences like these may not be down to a straight remain/leave to Con/Lab/Lib vote relationship, but to some shared characteristic. For example, there is a strong correlation between a Remain vote and high educational qualifications, so we might be appealing more successfully to people at some educational levels than others. I suspect actually Brexit is the main factor, but others may also be in play. The way of testing this would be to look at places whose Remain/Leave proportion was out of kilter with some other factor such as education, age group or income level.
If I can sneakily add a comment on the earlier posting: remember a big increase in vote for third or fourth parties can be down to fielding many more candidates, not to higher votes from contest to contest.
Gina Miller has launched a website remainunited.org backed by research from Comres and electoral calculus – this suggests if 50% of Remain voters voted tactically for the leading Remain party of the Lib Dems, Change UK, Greens, SNP and Plaid Cymru it could boost the number of Remain MEPs elected by 60% from 10 to 16.
Short answer – in the England vote Lib Dem in all the English Regions. In Scotland vote SNP (one more SNP seat) and in Wales vote Plaid (although this doesn’t change the number in Wales)
https://www.remainunited.org/be-tactical/