The Conservative collapse in the polls in 2022
Let’s compare the first and last polls of the year from pollsters who had national voting intention polls in both January and December of this year:
| Pollster | Jan Lab lead | Dec Lab lead | Change |
| Deltapoll | 9% | 13% | +4 |
| Ipsos | 9% | 26% | +17 |
| Kantar | 4% | 17% | +13 |
| Opinium | 5% | 15% | +10 |
| Redfield & Wilton | 3% | 17% | +14 |
| Savanta ComRes | 4% | 17% | +13 |
| Techne | 7% | 17% | +10 |
| YouGov | 4% | 24% | +20 |
Not a happy picture for the Conservatives.
It’s worth noting too that the spread of leads at the start of the year – a 6 point spread between 3% and 9% – was much smaller than the spread at the end of the year – a13 point spread between 13% and 26%. At the moment that spread does not matter that much as the picture is the same in both cases: a large Labour lead.
But if the polls narrow and the spread doesn’t also narrow back to its early 2022 size, then the polls will start getting rather harder to interpret.
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I should be grateful if your polls could deal with the percentage allocated to Reform UK