Lib Dems hold seat in South Cambs by-election
Only two principal authority council by-elections this week, but both, hooray, with Liberal Democrat candidates.
First up, a Lib Dem defence:
Congratulations to new councillor, Eileen Wilson. (And there’s been more good news for the local Lib Dem team.)
That is a Conservative gain from SNP.
Thank you to Dick Moerman for being the Lib Dem candidate.
For what all this means for the running total of council by-election results since the last May elections, see my council by-elections scorecard here.
These by-election results round-ups cover principal authority by-elections as it’s only those for which comprehensive results are available.
Understanding the opinion polls
For understanding what is happening in politics, by-elections have the advantage of being real votes in real ballot boxes. But the opinion polls have the advantage of trying to be a representative sample of voters, not just those in the places that happen to have by-elections. To understand the polls properly – and what they do and don’t really tell us – see my book, Polling UnPacked: The History, Uses and Abuses of Political Opinion Polls.
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If you sign up for my daily email with the latest pieces from this site, you’ll also get included as a little bonus the full set of council by-election results each week:
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What was the reason for the big fall in our vote in Cottenham?
A big part of that is Labour standing when they didn’t before (i.e. lots of Labour voters were wrapped up in our total before). That said, the result will give a good bar chart for squeezing the Labour vote next time around.