Electoral Calculus’s local election predictions
A summary of the seat change predictions from Electoral Calculus for the big May rounds of local elections, based on opinion polling:
| Year | Conservative | Labour | Lib Dem | Green | ||||
| Predicted | Actual | Predicted | Actual | Predicted | Actual | Predicted | Actual | |
| 2023 original updated | -258 -338 | -1,060 | +408 +395 | +536 | -39 +14 | +407 | -35 -7 | +241 |
| 2022 | -548 | -485 | +819 | +108 | +49 | +224 | -26 | +87 |
| 2021 | +339 | +234 | +280 | -326 | -97 | +8 | -8 | +88 |
Predictions are taken from the Electoral Calculus figures published at the time. Actual seat change figures are taken from LocalBase.
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Thanks, Mark, for the Electoral Calculus predictions for the May council elections. I note you don’t comment on their predictions (!) but providing the actual results for 2021 and 2022 as against their predictions speaks volumes !
Thanks Mark. Judging by the 2021 and 2022, the Electoral Calculus’ local elections predictions are well wide of the mark. What is their use then?
The only thing that matters is the result so let’s not lose heart and let’s keep on convincing the electorate that a Lib Dem council always works hard for them.