Lib Dems miss out on gain from Greens after votes tied

Six principal authority council by-elections or rescheduled contests from May this week. Let’s take the most dramatic result first, where Holly Greenberry-Pullen just missed out on gaining a seat from the Greens. Votes were tied… and she lost the drawing of the lots. Commiserations, Holly!

(This is a multi-member ward and the Greens won a seat by finishing third in the last all-up elections, and hence the vote share changes above.)

Elsewhere:

Thank you to Melanie Bullard and Belinda Gornall for ensuring the Lib Dems were fully represented on the ballot paper.

David Chapman, Ken Darke and Peter Galton were the Lib Dem candidates – thank you.

Then also alas a set of contests without Lib Dem candidates:

For what all this means for the running total of council by-election results since the last May elections, see my council by-elections scorecard here.

These by-election results round-ups cover principal authority by-elections as it’s only those for which comprehensive results are available.

Understanding the opinion polls

For understanding what is happening in politics, by-elections have the advantage of being real votes in real ballot boxes. But the opinion polls have the advantage of trying to be a representative sample of voters, not just those in the places that happen to have by-elections. To understand the polls properly – and what they do and don’t really tell us – see my book, Polling UnPacked: The History, Uses and Abuses of Political Opinion Polls.

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If you sign up for my daily email with the latest pieces from this site, you’ll also get included as a little bonus the full set of council by-election results each week: