Political

Relatively rare Labour gain from Conservatives

Three principal authority council by-elections this week, with two of them having Lib Dem candidates. Though it’s disappointing not to have a full slate, that is at least one up on the last time these wards were up.

This Labour gain is notable as being relatively rare for Labour to gain council seats from the Conservatives since the May elections: of the 14 the Conservatives have lost, only 4 now have gone to Labour.

Thank you to Jonathan Errington for putting the Liberal Democrats back on the ballot in this ward for the first time since 2008.

Stephen Long was the Lib Dem candidate – thank you.

For what all this means for the running total of council by-election results since the last May elections, see my council by-elections scorecard here.

These by-election results round-ups cover principal authority by-elections as it’s only those for which comprehensive results are available.

Understanding the opinion polls

For understanding what is happening in politics, by-elections have the advantage of being real votes in real ballot boxes. But the opinion polls have the advantage of trying to be a representative sample of voters, not just those in the places that happen to have by-elections. To understand the polls properly – and what they do and don’t really tell us – see my book, Polling UnPacked: The History, Uses and Abuses of Political Opinion Polls.

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3 responses to “Relatively rare Labour gain from Conservatives”

  1. Should we be putting up candidates in Constituencies/Councils where we are only getting around 5% of the vote? If the aim is to get rid of the Tories by any means should we not be concentrating our resources on those seats where we Lib Dems stand the best chance of displacing a Tory incumbent?

    Reply

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