Is there an unusually large number of undecided voters?
How pollsters treat those who say ‘don’t know’ is currently the biggest cause of differences in the results from different firms. The number of people who have switched from Conservative in 2019 to ‘don’t know’ now is also a source of hope for those wanting to see the government recover in the polls.
I’ve written before about why that hope might well be misplaced, but is the overall number of people saying ‘don’t know’ in this Parliament particularly large?
No it’s not, as a recent report from UK in a Changing Europe shows:
What is different, however, is the partisan split:
In that report Sophie Stowers and Paula Surridge point out the demographics and politics of the 2019 Conservative – don’t know switchers. They:
tend to be mostly female, with around 75% being homeowners and 65% over the age of 55. The economy is a key issue to this group, with 65% citing this as the most important issue facing the country – slightly less than for those who have already switched their support to Labour…
This group does share some demographic similarities with Conservative-Reform ‘defectors’ (both groups tend to be older homeowners). However, their policy preferences are very different. Just 15% of Conservative ‘don’t knows’ cite immigration as a key issue. Meanwhile, 59% of those now intending to vote Reform prioritise immigration.
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it might be more useful to ascertain what percentage of so-called floating voters are truly prepared to switch their vote to another party, It may well be that they remain tribal and just don’t go to vote.
The other demographic worth pursuing are those voters who haven’t voted, maybe never, and persuade them that there is hope, and that there is something worth voting for.