At the end of a tumultuous week of opinion polls, we have eight principal authority council by-elections(for nine seats) in which voters went to the actual polls. Six Lib Dem candidates in total for the nine vacancies, which is one up on the last time the seats were up.
Congratulations to the winning Lib Dem candidate, Geraldine Whitmore:
Congratulations to new Lib Dem councillors, Mark Browne and Helen Speed (double vacancy).
No Lib Dem candidate, alas, as in the previous two outings in this ward.
No Lib Dem candidate, repeating the two previous no-shows since the ward was created.
Thank you to Lib Dem candidate Rick Tanner for standing.
Special thinks to Lib Dem candidate Steve Nelson, as he was first for the party in this ward since 2009.
Thank you to Lib Dem candidate Kenny Mackenzie.
For what all this means for the running total of council by-election results since the last May elections, see my council by-elections scorecard here.
These by-election results round-ups cover principal authority by-elections as it’s only those for which comprehensive results are available. But this week, this by-election at the town/parish/community council level did catch my eye:
In Warrington, alongside the two Lib Dem holds above, Sarah Marsh and Leila Williams also won in the parallel parish council by-election. Congratulations!
Understanding the opinion polls
For understanding what is happening in politics, by-elections have the advantage of being real votes in real ballot boxes. But the opinion polls have the advantage of trying to be a representative sample of voters, not just those in the places that happen to have by-elections. To understand the polls properly – and what they do and don’t really tell us – see my book, Polling UnPacked: The History, Uses and Abuses of Political Opinion Polls.
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