Odds sharply improve of next Parliamentary by-election being in a former Lib Dem constituency

Brecon Beacons in Wales - CC0 Public Domain

Whilst we wait to find out if there will be a Parliamentary by-election in Peterborough, and with one definitely on the way in Newport West following the sad death of Paul Flynn, there is also now the chance of one in Brecon and Radnorshire.

As the BBC reports:

A Welsh Conservative MP has been charged in connection with allegations over false expenses claims.

Chris Davies, MP for Brecon and Radnorshire, is accused of two offences of forgery and one of providing false or misleading information for allowance claims.

The Crown Prosecution Service (CPS) said he was due to appear before Westminster magistrates in March.

Jane Dodds selected by Liberal Democrats to fight Brecon and Radnorshire

Welsh Liberal Democrat Leader Jane Dodds has been selected to be the party's Westminster candidate for Brecon & Radnorshire, a constituency that may be facing a Parliamentary by-election. more

From a Liberal Democrat political viewpoint, this Parliamentary by-election would be particularly interesting as this is a former Liberal Democrat constituency. Richard Livesey and then Roger Williams have been Members of Parliament for this seat. For the Welsh Assembly, this constituency is held by the one Liberal Democrat Assembly Member, Education Minister Kirsty Williams.

Here’s how those three possible Parliamentary by-elections compare:

  • Brecon and Radnorshire: 2010 Lib Dem vote – 46% / 2016 referendum vote – 48% Remain
  • Newport West: 2010 Lib Dem vote – 17% / 2016 referendum vote – 47% Remain
  • Peterborough: 2010 Lib Dem vote – 20% / 2016 referendum vote – 38% Remain

Brecon, therefore, stands out as the best Lib Dem prospect. It could also make for a useful early test of how the party and Independent Group can figure out ways of working together.

UPDATE: The Conservative MP in Brecon and Radnorshire has now pleaded guilty.

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