Two Lib Dem gains from Conservatives in by-elections

Five principal authority council by-elections this week along with a Parliamentary contest. Three Lib Dems across those five contests, which alas is a net down one on the last time the seats were up.

Congratulations to new councillor Ed Chidley, winning a ward where the Conservatives had topped the poll every single time since it was first contested in 2002. The ward is within the Cheltenham constituency, one of the top prospects for a Lib Dem gain at the next general election.

Congratulations to new councillor Felicity Cunliffe-Lister, whose victory reduces the Conservative majority on the council to just two.

Thank you to Keith Kirwan for putting the Liberal Democrats on the ballot paper here when previously we weren’t.

For what all this means for the running total of council by-election results since the last May elections, see my council by-elections scorecard here.

Meanwhile in the Parliamentary by-election:

Thank you to Jo Barton for standing for the Lib Dems.

These by-election results round-ups cover principal authority by-elections as it’s only those for which comprehensive results are available. But this week, this by-election at the town/parish/community council level did catch my eye:

A Lib Dem gain from independents, with 67% of the vote, in a ward where the Conservatives topped the poll last time but didn’t put up a candidate in the by-election.

Understanding the opinion polls

For understanding what is happening in politics, by-elections have the advantage of being real votes in real ballot boxes. But the opinion polls have the advantage of trying to be a representative sample of voters, not just those in the places that happen to have by-elections. To understand the polls properly – and what they do and don’t really tell us – see my book, Polling UnPacked: The History, Uses and Abuses of Political Opinion Polls.

Get by-election results by email

If you sign up for my daily email with the latest pieces from this site, you’ll also get included as a little bonus the full set of council by-election results each week: