One in five voters say they are very likely to vote tactically BUT…
At first blush, the headline is all nice and clear:
One in five voters say they are very likely to vote tactically at the next General Election
Reputable pollster, recent fieldwork, complete with nice graphic, so all good, right?
Well, not quite.
That’s because it’s surprisingly fearsomely difficult to poll accurately in advance how much tactical voting there will be. Different questions, all reputably and apparently reasonably worded, produce very different results.
Plus, there is campaigning to come between any tactical voting poll and polling day. Campaigning that will often involve bar charts and tactical voting websites. Campaigning which is important to the eventual impact of tactical voting given that most people don’t know last time’s result in their own seats and hence people can vote tactically the ‘wrong’ way.
So the main thing to look out for in such polling questions is the trend. Let’s hope Ipsos keep on asking this question.
Otherwise on this subject, my podcast earlier this year with Alan Wager is still very relevant:
Get the essential polling book
interesting ‘most people don’t know the result last time in their own seat’.. that must reflect on the need for Cllrs/MPs to keep telling us what they are doing.. and when people like Alistair Campell don’t seem to know how TV works, one has to wonder..
And then there’s the experience that even council officers often get confused between the roles of MPs and Cllrs..
Seems to me there needs to be proper politcal education on the school curriculum
I agree re curriculum
Pupils know more about the battle of Hastings than they know about basic economics, politics, civics etc
I recently met a Sheffield uni history student who had never heard of thatcher, the SDP & the battle of Orgreave coking plant even though he lived near it. Ho hum.