New constituency poll shows Liberal Democrats leading in Portsmouth South

A fourth constituency opinion poll carried out by Survation and commissioned by the Liberal Democrats has been released today, this time for Portsmouth South.

It shows the Liberal Democrats moving up into first place:
Survation opinion poll for Portsmouth South constituency

Note: the Survation graphic contains a small error as the drop in the Conservative Party vote share is 11 points (down from 38% in 2017).

The same caveats as before very much apply and the full data tables are available.

One consistent pattern across all four of them (the others being Cambridge, Finchley and Golders Green and North East Somerset) is that there are large swings matching the national political situation. As reflected in the current national polls, the MRP analysis from Best for Britain, the local election results and the Euro election results this year, the current popularity of parties has changed significantly from 2017. Each of those four different pieces of evidence points the same way.

Hence, as all this different evidence points to, the 2017 result in a seat is not some magic, case-closed proof of who is currently in contention.

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