Ten Conservative MPs at risk following local elections

A Liberal Democrat press release brings the number crunching:

Analysis has revealed the top ten Conservative MPs at risk following the Liberal Democrat surge at the local elections.

The “Blue Wall backlash” would see the likes of Wimbledon MP Stephen Hammond, MP for Wokingham John Redwood, and Deputy Prime Minister Dominic Raab all lose their seats at the next General Election.

The analysis is based on what would happen if the share of the vote within each constituency at Thursday’s local elections was replicated in a general election.

It comes as Dominic Raab admitted on Sky’s Ridge on Sunday he’s facing a “tough fight” to hold his seat of Esher and Walton when asked about the threat posed by the Liberal Democrats. The analysis suggests that the party would take the constituency with 39.8% of the vote.

Liberal Democrat Deputy Leader Daisy Cooper MP said:

These elections are the clearest warning shot yet to Conservative MPs across the Blue Wall who are seeing their vote crumble before their eyes.

Having a law-breaking Prime Minister and a tax-raising Chancellor at the helm – sitting on their hands while families struggle with the cost of living emergency – has left many Tory Ministers sitting very uncomfortably indeed.

Former lifelong Conservative voters who are fed up of being ignored are turning to the Liberal Democrats and our offer of a fair deal in their droves in a Blue Wall backlash.

Make no mistake, we are putting those MPs who have taken their constituents for granted for far too long on notice.

Ten constituencies at risk

Mary Robinson (Cheadle): LD 43.5%, Con 26.7%, Lab 19.5%

William Wragg (Hazel Grove): LD 51.9%, Con 24.8%, Lab 18.4%

Dominic Raab (Esher and Walton): LD 39.8%, Con 33.0%, Lab 4.7%

Stephen Hammond (Wimbledon): LD 36.6%, Con 28.6%, Lab 20.2%

John Redwood (Wokingham): LD 47.8%, Con 31.6%, Lab 16.4%

Alex Chalk (Cheltenham): LD 57.4%, Con 28.3%, Lab 3.3%

Steve Brine (Winchester): LD 53.5%, Con 35.8%, Lab 5.4%

Elliott Colburn (Carshalton & Wallington): LD 37%, Con 28%, Lab 18%

Andrew Jones (Harrogate & Knaresborough): LD 45.0%, Con 41.2%, Lab 10.8%

Bim Afolami (Hitchin and Harpenden): LD 40%, Con 32%, Lab 17%

Sign up to get the latest news and analysis

"*" indicates required fields

What would you like to receive?*
If you submit this form, your data will be used in line with the privacy policy here to update you on the topic(s) selected. This may including using this data to contact you via a variety of digital channels.
This field is for validation purposes and should be left unchanged.

7 responses to “Ten Conservative MPs at risk following local elections”

  1. Surprised Yeovil not in this list ………… have the Som CC results been included in this analysis?

  2. Mark, you have a short memory. We claimed in one election to have a decapitation strategy to get rid of top Tory MPs. It failed abysmally, because the Tories were put on notice and put massive resources (that we couldn’t and can’t match) into those seats. This list suggests a similar approach. Far better to keep quiet and beaver away without giving any publicity to our intentions.

  3. Hi Mark, I think you need to check your list above, you have LD with the highest % in the lower half!

  4. I’d have thought that the results in South Cambridgeshire would have justified that being included as a ‘gain’?

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

All comments and data you submit with them will be handled in line with the privacy and moderation policies.